Death From the Blue States
Missing children stalk the West. What the Pope calls the ‘culture of death’ has engulfed Europe -- its birth rate has fallen below likely recovery. The birth rate is also falling in the United States. But recent demographic events indicate that the states still function as a social laboratory – and offer a ray of hope.
Let me explain. Polls show that the electorate is rapidly taking sides and digging in its heels -- the ‘uncommitted middle’ is shrinking. Today, most Republicans believe in God (He made us and is watching over us), are against abortion (nothing is more precious than a child), and against gay rights (the destructive should not be accorded the same status as the necessary and productive). In contrast, Democrats are primarily secular (life just happened, all laws are man-made), for abortion rights (desires of adults come first), and for gay rights (the principle of equality trumps what are ultimately trivial differences).
The Democrat’s philosophy includes components of embarrassment about the success of the country (there must be punishment for so great a prosperity), as well as anti-human sentiments (man is raping the planet). Pushing policies that will force the country into decline, they are pessimistic -- it will require considerable sacrifice to reduce prosperity. The Republican philosophy includes components of triumphalism (we must show others the way) and a belief that God blesses the thankful who work hard. They are optimistic because ‘He will provide for those He loves.’
Nothing is more optimistic than having children, and nothing predicts darkness more certainly than their dearth. Does the pessimistic Democrat philosophy result in lower, and the optimistic Republican perspective in higher birthrates?
The NCHS1 just released birthrates 1990-2002. I indexed the philosophy of a state by the party of the candidate for whom it voted in the presidential elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000. If it voted Democrat in each, it scored 0, if it voted Republican once it scored 1, if it voted Republican thrice it scored 3. States were labeled ‘G’ for gay rights if they had passed at least 4 statewide protections for those engaging in homosexuality.2
- The 10 states with the largest declines in number of births between 1990 and 2002 -- the rapidly dying -- were New York (0, G), Pennsylvania (0), Vermont (0, G), New Hampshire (1, G), Maine (0), Connecticut (0, G), Michigan (0), District of Columbia (0, G), Alaska (3), and North Dakota (3).
- Joining them in significant declines -- the dying states -- were: California (0, G), Montana (2), Wyoming (3), Iowa (0), Wisconsin (0, G), Illinois (0), Ohio (1), West Virginia (1), New Jersey (0, G), Massachusetts (0, G), Maryland (0,G), Missouri (1), Louisiana (1), Mississippi (3), Alabama (3), Hawaii (0), Rhode Island (0, G) and South Carolina (3).
- The ten largest increases in births -- the most rapidly growing states -- were registered in Oregon (0), Nevada (2), Idaho (3), Utah (3), Arizona (2), Colorado (2), Oklahoma (3), Texas (3), Georgia (2), and North Carolina (3).
- Joining them in growth were Florida (2), Arkansas (1), Nebraska (3), and Tennessee (1).
The correlations are not perfect – other factors influence birth rates -- but they are very strong. The growth states are mainly Republican (the blue states) and the dying states are mainly Democrat (the red states). The rapidly dying states averaged 0.7 (that is, only 0.7 away from a perfect Democrat 0), the dying states averaged 0.95, the growing averaged 1.75, and the rapidly growing states averaged 2.3 (0.7 away from a perfect Republican 3).
Gay rights was strongly correlated with demographic decline: 5 (50%) of the 10 most rapidly dying states and 6 (32%) of the 19 dying states have gay rights (states with gay rights averaged 0.1). No growing state has gay rights.
Homosexual activity was large in ‘the way of death’ about which Moses and St. Paul wrote. Is it a coincidence that gay marriage commenced in a dying state, or that 11 of the 13 states with gay rights laws are dying (MN and NM have ‘average’ birth rates)?
John Kerry is from a dying state, Bush from a rapidly growing one. Kerry registers as the most liberal Senator and says he wants to more closely align with Europe. Bush is openly Christian, and an independent ‘cowboy.’ Given the growing tilt toward demographic decline, this election could be pivotal.
1. Sutton PD, Mathews TJ. Trends in characteristics of births by State: United States, 1990, 1995, and 2000-2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 52, no 19. May 10, 2004. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics.
2. according to www.actwin as of 5/5/04.
