The Bush Administration’s reckless invasion of Iraq pushed American foreign policy into a downward spiral that gave regional hegemony to pre-nuclear Iran.
That hegemony promised to destroy whatever influence the United States had in South Asia and gave to Iran the opportunity to wage an aggressive cold war against Israel, sabotage a fledgling democracy in Iraq, and support a hot war against Israel by Hamas and a new Palestinian state. The next four to eight years of the Obama Administration look as if the United States would play the fool’s role in South Asia, give impetus to the Peoples Republic of China to move against the Republic of China, and encourage Russia to recover its territories in the Ukraine. A perfect storm is brewing that could brand the Obama Administration as a pacifist regime unable to assert the national security interests of the United States.
That was my assessment prior to the Iranian elections when only hard line advocates of an imperial American foreign policy were led by neoconservative radicals. Bill Kristol, Norman Podhoretz and Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News All Stars led by Charles Krauthammer were marginalized by the 2008 election wipe out of the GOP and election of America’s first Marxist-trained president.
Back then, only a few weeks ago, anyone who pushed for an invasion of Iran or, at the least, an attack focused on Iran’s nuclear weapon development sites, was branded a nut case.
After the recent presidential election in Iran, however, actions by the Republican Guards in the streets of Tehran and radical claims by Iran’s clerics have clearly changed this scenario. Where before it was widely believed that an attack would turn Iranian public opinion against the attackers, now there is reason to believe that a surgical strike aimed at Iran’s nuclear weapon development sites would be approved by a majority of Iranian citizens.
What remains to be seen is whether an inexperienced President of the United States has the capacity to absorb national security issues and the ramifications for his Administration of an aggressive foreign policy aimed at restoring American power in the region.
At issue is whether American foreign policy will adopt the same pattern of former president Jimmy Carter who did nothing when faced with an act of war by Islamic clerics who imprisoned American diplomats. Though doing nothing has merits particularly after eight years of Bush Administration braggadocio and recklessness, a momentary advantage presented by Iran’s misunderstanding of foreign policy is very real.
Today disruption of Iran’s nuclear weapons developments by surgical strikes would be met with approval by Western European governments and one need not rule out European participation in such aggressive actions.
Few disadvantages can be seen to such actions which may even provide cover for the Obama Administration’s withdrawal from Iraq and failing economic policies.
Whether President Obama is another Jimmy Carter or a president willing to take risks when opportunities occur is something that remains to be seen. Whatever he decides will determine whether President Obama is just another failed president or America’s first Emperor. Either way, America loses.
