“Realignment” in domestic American politics is a concept that refers to fundamental shifts in public opinion that usher in domination by one political party. The Great Depression triggered one important realignment that continued through the election of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 through 1973. During the forty year period from 1933—when President Herbert Hoover was replaced by Franklin Roosevelt—through 1973 when President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-election, the United States was governed by one political party.
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 suggested to some that a new realignment was occurring. The successful election of Republicans in 1994 that gave control of the U.S. House of Representatives was another sign. But the much expected realignment was dashed by the failed presidencies of George Herbert Walker Bush and George W. Bush and a financial meltdown that ushered in the radical presidency of President Barack Obama. Whether President Obama is another Herbert Hoover or another Franklin Roosevelt remains to be seen, but another realignment has been occurring that will shape domestic politics in America well into the next century.
In 1977—in what turned out to be exactly the wrong time—Americans elected a president whose incompetence in national security policy allowed a shift in power in Southern Asia to a radical Islamic regime in Iran. Though the seizure of American diplomats in Iran was a legitimate cause for immediate military action, President Carter did not act. In some ways this was surprising since Jimmy Carter was a Naval Academy graduate and, presumably, educated in military science. But, he did not act decisively and, as recent events suggest, Iran is now positioned to threaten the survival of Israel, dominate Pakistan, India, and the Arab states. Short of going to war with a nuclear Iran and a rising Islam, Southern Asia is lost to American influence.
In Asia proper the Roosevelt and Truman Administrations cut off support for the nationalist regime of Chiang Kai-shek and watched passively as Mao Tse-tung fought for and won a communist regime in China. Jimmy Carter, again, shifted America’s alignment with the Republic of China in Taiwan and admitted that the Peoples Republic of China was the legitimate ruler of Taiwan. This shift, begun when President Richard Nixon played the “China Card” and opened relations with the PRC, was followed by increased trade with Communist China and utopian expectations that trade would change China from a communist controlled state to a commercial republic. In fact, the Communist Party of China remains in complete control of the levers of state power and is moving to dominate Taiwan, Korea, Thailand and Japan. American influence in Asia is being minimalized even though we have defense treaties with our Asian allies.
In Europe slowing of new births is increasing the influence of non-Christian populations with higher birth rates and the European Union seems certain to admit Turkey and to consider Europe’s Christian traditions as equal to the traditions of Muslims and Hindus. Europe ceases to play a role in international affairs and will become over time insignificant in terms of power, but an interesting tourist destination.
This realignment has not escaped Russia’s attention and slowly the former satellites of the Soviet Union will be reabsorbed into Russia’s sphere of influence. Ukraine, the Baltic states—every country formerly dominated by the former Soviet Union—will become subjects of Russia’s kleptocracy. Only insofar as a rising Islam and a powerful China challenge Russia will the United States and Russia discover a mutuality of interests.
Where does that leave the United States? In one word—vulnerable.
Vulnerable to oil extortion, vulnerable to Islamic terrorists, and vulnerable to continued economic, educational and moral decline. The great promise of the United States that individual liberty, freedom of enterprise, constitutional government and the rule of law will assure the survival of the United States in a dangerous world will fall into question.
Entitlement programs established every twenty-five years by the New Deal, Great Society, and now the Obama Administration will drown the American economy in trillions of dollars of debt and compel us to adjust our foreign policies to those to whom we are indebted. Rising unemployment, hyper inflation and future oil shocks will slow commerce, reduce tax revenue and force the federal government to cut entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and subsidized education programs by thirty to forty percent. Civil disturbances will occur, including an attempted coup by disgruntled military officers, and a future President of the United States will declare martial law, suspend habeas corpus, and, for the first time in American history, cease holding Congressional elections.
I hope that this doesn’t occur, but, as of today, I believe this is a realistic estimate of political developments in the United States through the end of this century.
